第一部 第七百八十八章 瑞士银行保密制度
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美国那边已经出现了名为“占领华尔街”运动,矛头直指各大金融机构。
西方国家一向以民主自居,总不能公然不把民众呼声放在眼里,于是各种监督机构也难得动作起来,开始对金融机构仔细检查,而以房产次贷为主的金融衍生品几乎就是空手套白狼,哪经得起严查,于是继麦道夫丑闻后,2005年下半年成了整个西方金融界的噩梦,此起彼伏的丑闻让原本衣冠楚楚,态度高傲银行家和基金经理焦头烂额,疲于应付。
而此时杨星终于决定祭起另一个大杀招,经过反复谈判,2005年9月,星空人力同美、俄、印等多国信用评级机构商议后,同意共同组建起了一家名叫“天平”的评级机构。这家机构一亮相就出手不凡,首先对西方许多知名企业和国家信用大肆评点了一番,得出的结论三大信用评级机构大相径庭,对于许多金融机构的前景预测黯淡,甚至连许多被视为顶级信用等级的西方国家也是评价不高,其中调低美国信用评级和对认为欧洲各国主权债务危机迫在眉睫的做法给本就躁动不安的市场更增添了一股暗流。
传统的三大信用评级机构是美国人自家开的,当然不会给美国和其盟友评级太低,一向给予3a级的评级,这能让他们以最低利息发行债券,借到大量资金。可天平事务所提出,最近美国人在海外挑起多起战争,财政赤字相比起克林顿时代的盈余来说已经涨到了天文数字,马上就要突破美国国会自己限定的最高借债额,怎么还能一直保持3a评级?
相比美国,更大的问题还出在欧洲。二战后欧洲实行高福利、高税收政策,这也是维基解密揭出富翁藏在瑞士银行户头以逃税的丑闻后,各国如临大敌的根本原因。可这样也带来了沉重的债务负担。欧洲多国实行从摇篮到坟墓的福利制度,虽然让外人羡慕不已,但也造就了一批宁肯吃国家救济也不愿参加工作的懒汉阶层。而这几年美联储过低的利率造成市场流动性泛滥,大量资金流入西方国家,欧洲国家发现采取借债“寅词卯粮”的办法不错,躺着逍遥快活生活也能持续,于是诞生了一被特指的“欧猪”国家。
天平事务的报告对“欧猪四国”和正被视为欧洲“新经济代表”的爱尔兰和冰岛大肆抨击,指出他们已是站在悬崖边还不自知。“欧猪四国”是国际债券分析家、学者和国际经济界媒体对欧洲四个主权债券信用评级最低国家的贬称。这个称呼涵盖葡萄牙(portugal)、意大利(italy)、希腊(greece)、西班牙(spain)四国,首字母正好是英文猪“pigs”的意思。
20世纪90年代初开始,人们就用“笨猪四国(pigs)”来称呼他们,这四国都是紧靠地中海的南欧国家,历史悠久,古希腊和罗马文明一直影响到今天世界,西班牙和葡萄牙也是大航海时代的急先锋。可惜进入现代工业化时代后四国明显落了下风,虽然这四国地理位置优越,国内风景名胜星罗棋布,是世界各地游客游历欧洲的必到之地,又是第一批加入欧盟的国家,但在外界评论其经济水平时,都是大摇其头。
这四国国民生活富足安逸,懒散休闲,生活质量高,贫富差距小,长期接受北方的法德等相对发达国家的援助,是欧盟出名的差等生,除开旅游业以及衍生的相关服务业以外,四国产业经济结构单一,加入欧盟后,传统的造船、汽车等工业日渐萧条,新兴产业却几乎是白纸一张。因此四国的政府财政预算,在年年见涨的公共开支及福利补贴之下捉襟见肘,只好采用拆东墙补西墙的举债方式解决,以致公共债务债台高筑,gdp增长抵不上债务增长。幅度。。。)
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